What Is an AI-Written Betting Market?
An AI-written betting market is one an AI authors from a live scene: on Lukk, by Adkuu, the AI writes the question, prices it live, and the camera settles it.
An AI-written betting market is a market whose question, outcomes and opening price are authored by an AI rather than by a trader or an editor. On Lukk, by Adkuu, a vision layer watches a live public camera, the AI writes a short natural-language question about what happens next, prices it live, and the camera settles it from signed evidence frames. The same idea appears in prediction-market feeds: Adkuu Pulse's "Magic Questions" let an operator submit a free-text idea and have the AI structure it into a priced, resolvable market. In both cases the AI does the authoring; the result is still decided by evidence, not by the model.
From live scene to question to live price
On Lukk the pipeline runs for every round, about 90 seconds long, with a new market every minute or two:
- The vision layer reads the scene. It tracks every car, bus, bird and pedestrian in frame and what each is doing. The detection boxes are drawn over the video, so the player sees the same pixels the oracle will judge.
- The AI writes the question. It picks one of five shapes (race, first-to, count, happen, state-at-close) that fits what is in frame and writes it in plain language: "Will a bus cross the junction before the light turns red?", "Which lands first — a cardinal, a blue jay, or neither?", "Will the crane be lifting at zero?"
- The rule is frozen and hashed. Before the first bet, a
rule_hashpins the exact settlement contract on every ticket. - The AI prices it live. Each outcome carries a fair probability that moves with the scene; the operator's account mode turns it into the price the player sees.
- Players call it, and the camera settles it. One tap backs an outcome at a locked price; payout is stake × odds, with odds up to ×20. At close, the deciding frames are locked, signed (ed25519) and published, and a deterministic tracker or a vision judge decides. If the camera cannot tell, every stake is refunded.
The shapes and example questions are listed in What question types do live-camera betting markets use?.
How it differs from editor-written markets and from RNG
| Editor-written market | RNG game | AI-written live-camera market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Who writes the question | A trader or editor, ahead of time | Nobody; the game has fixed rules | An AI, from the live scene, every round |
| What decides the result | Official data, a result service or a resolution desk | A random number generator | The camera's own frames under a frozen rule |
| Cadence | Match or event schedules | Every spin or round | A new market every minute or two |
| Evidence a player can check | A results page | A fairness certificate for the RNG | Signed evidence frames and a replay |
| Can anyone know the answer early | No, but settlement waits for the data | No; the outcome is generated by the game's RNG at play time | No; bets close before the window begins, and the scene is public |
An editor-written market is limited by how many questions a trading team can write and resolve; an AI-written market is not, which is what makes a market about a single bird feeder economic. And unlike an RNG game, it cannot be priced from a payout table, because the price depends on what is in frame right now.
Pricing modes: house fixed odds or an AMM fair curve
Lukk offers two pricing modes, set per operator account:
houseis the classical bookmaker model. The player's price is the Lukk fair price plus the operator's own margin add-on, adjusted for the liability already held on that outcome. The operator controls the margin and sees the margined fixed odds and the fair probabilities side by side in the feed.ammfills at the live probability on a fair curve, the way an automated market maker does, with no bookmaker margin layered on top.
Both modes run on the same risk engine: per-outcome liability caps, circuit breakers, acceptance suspension on decisive events or stale prices, per-bet minimum stake, maximum stake and maximum payout in the operator's currency, and operator and global kill switches. A risk desk gives operator traders fair and margined prices, exposure limits, payout holds and a backoffice.
Acceptance delay and price protection
An AI-written price moves with the scene, so a ticket cannot simply be filled at the number on screen when the player tapped. On Lukk a ticket locks its odds at the moment it is accepted, one to three seconds after the tap. During that acceptance delay three checks run:
- In-flight veto. The deterministic tracker refuses the ticket (
in_flight_event) if a decisive event has just happened. - Price protection. If the price moved, the ticket takes the price then current, or is refused if the outcome was suspended (
outcome_suspended); an operator may also seeprice_movedas a rejection reason. - Quote TTL. A quote that has expired is refused (
quote_expired) rather than honoured at a stale price, and a player on a delayed stream is refused (oracle_lag,stale_price), never filled stale.
Other rejection reasons an operator's platform should map are insufficient_funds, min_stake, max_stake, max_payout, suspended, circuit_breaker and betting_closed.
AI-written markets in prediction-market feeds
AI authorship is not limited to cameras. Adkuu Pulse, Adkuu's fixed-odds prediction-markets feed, curates questions on politics, crypto, tech, culture, science and local events from 5+ prediction platforms and regional news, and its Magic Questions feature lets an operator submit a free-text idea that the AI structures into a market. For every market Pulse delivers an AI probability shaped by a risk model (flow-weighting, liability, staleness, circuit breakers), then ready-to-use fixed odds priced with a margin formula the operator controls, with automated multi-tier resolution (data API, then web search, then consensus, with human review as a fallback). The two products differ in what the AI writes about and what resolves the market: on Pulse the world's data, on Lukk a camera. Details are at /solutions/prediction-markets and /solutions/lukk.
Sources
- AI-driven micro-markets: Betting on moments, not matches
- Hub88 chosen as exclusive aggregation partner for 155.io's breakthrough CCTV game Rush Hour
- Rush Hour: live traffic betting reshapes the iGaming market
Last verified: October 10, 2026.