What is post-execution settlement for prediction markets?

Post-execution settlement for prediction markets is the process of finalizing a resolved market and applying its rules to determine participant positions, balances or payouts. The venue determines the outcome under the contract's written rules, using a named source, and pays out on winning positions, typically 1 dollar per winning contract and nothing on losing ones. Before that point, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission notes that customers can trade in and out of their position at the current market price to lock in gains or limit losses.

Is settlement the same as resolution?

Gammastack wrote on 24 September 2026 that resolution and settlement are not the same: resolution determines what happened, while settlement determines what happens to participant positions after the outcome is confirmed. In Gammastack's view, the split matters when designing prediction market software, because outcome determination and financial processing can require different controls. Once resolution is confirmed, a settlement engine calculates positions and processes the applicable payouts, as Gammastack describes the sequence. Blockchain-based prediction markets can use smart contracts to automate parts of resolution and settlement.

What should the rules tell traders about settlement?

Under guidance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, prediction market customers are entitled to timely, transparent information about event contracts, including payout, prices, how settlement determinations will be made and who decides. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission describes event contracts as typically structured as swaps. The rule of every Lukk market is frozen and hashed before the first bet, which pins the settlement terms to every ticket. Regulatory classification of Lukk's camera-resolved event contracts differs by jurisdiction and is worked through per market with the operator's legal team.

How do Kalshi and Polymarket settle markets?

iGaming Times reported on 5 October 2026 that on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, the exchange determines outcomes under each contract's terms once the source agency publishes a result, which can take from about an hour to more than twelve hours after a market closes. iGaming Times writes that under one set of Kalshi contract terms, if a game is suspended before 55 minutes of play and not resumed within 48 hours, unresolved markets settle at the last fair price determined by the exchange rather than at 0 or 1 dollar. According to iGaming Times, Polymarket uses UMA's Optimistic Oracle, in which a proposed outcome becomes final unless challenged within a short window, with disputes escalating to a vote of UMA token holders. Ambiguous cases can resolve 50-50, iGaming Times adds.

How does settlement work on Adkuu's Lukk and Adkuu Pulse?

Lukk, by Adkuu, turns live public cameras into fast betting markets that players call at a locked price and that the camera settles. Lukk bets close before the window begins, so even someone at the camera has not seen the outcome. Lukk markets settle within seconds of close, with a median under five seconds, and larger payouts carry a short verification hold. A Lukk ticket pays stake × odds at the locked price, exactly, and each Lukk settlement ends as won, lost or refunded. Adkuu Pulse checks outcomes against official APIs, news agencies and Wikipedia, and its settlement events arrive on the same real-time API as the odds.

What happens if a result is unclear or wrong after settlement?

If the camera cannot tell, the Lukk market is voided and every stake refunded; a void is always a full refund, never a re-grade. Post-settlement corrections on Lukk are rare and audit-driven, and they surface as a reversal in the operator's wallet log. Lukk's daily reconciliation covers the previous window with a two-hour overlap. Lukk never holds player funds: the operator keeps the player and the funds, while Lukk supplies the stream, the markets, the pricing, the settlement and the widget.

FAQ

What is post-execution settlement for prediction markets?

Post-execution settlement for prediction markets is the step that closes out a resolved market by applying its rules to work out each participant's positions, balances or payouts. Once the event is decided, winning contracts typically pay 1 dollar each and losing contracts pay nothing.

Is prediction market settlement the same as resolution?

No: Gammastack treats them as separate steps, with resolution establishing what happened and settlement deciding what happens to positions once the outcome is confirmed.

Can you sell a prediction market position before settlement?

Yes: the Commodity Futures Trading Commission says customers on CFTC-regulated prediction markets can trade out of a position before settlement at the current market price.

How long does prediction market settlement take?

Lukk markets, by contrast, settle within seconds of close, with a median under five seconds.

Sources

• Understanding Prediction Markets and Event Contracts | CFTC
• Prediction Market Resolution: Oracles and Settlement
• Market Resolution in Prediction Markets: How It Works
• How Prediction Markets Work: A Complete Guide (2026)

Last verified: November 4, 2026.