Why Is Mexico's Gambling Regulation Still Outdated in 2026?

Mexico's gambling regulation is still outdated in 2026 because the country continues to operate under a Federal Law on Games and Raffles enacted in 1947, and the modernisation bill promised by President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration in December 2024 has not been submitted to the legislature. Industry working groups convened in Q1 2025 by the Ministry of the Interior (SEGOB) — the regulator — have not produced a publicly circulated draft, and the first legislative session of 2026 (which ends April 30, 2026) will close without a vote. With Mexico co-hosting the FIFA World Cup beginning in June, the modern framework operators had hoped for will not be in place in time.

How Old Is the Current Framework?

The core statute governing Mexican gambling is nearly 80 years old. It predates online gaming entirely, and its implementing regulations have been patched incrementally rather than rewritten. Online operations function under administrative permits and case-by-case interpretations rather than a purpose-built online framework.

Miguel Ángel Ochoa Sánchez, president of AIEJA (the Mexican Association for Permit Holders, Operators and Suppliers of the Entertainment and Gambling Industry), has publicly described the market as "insufficiently regulated," particularly in the online segment. H2 Gambling Capital's Ed Birkin and lawyers at Mexican firm Lazcano Sámano have echoed the same assessment: the absence of formal, up-to-date regulation is actively constraining the market's ability to mature.

The Stalled Modernisation Timeline

The timeline operators have been tracking:

• December 2024 — President Sheinbaum publicly commits to a new Federal Law on Games and Raffles and tasks SEGOB with drafting it.
• Q1 2025 — SEGOB convenes thematic working groups with industry participation to shape the proposal.
• Q2 2025 onward — No public draft. No legislative submission. Industry stakeholders report no meaningful regulator-industry dialogue.
• Q1 2026 — The first 2026 legislative session ends April 30 without the bill being introduced.
• June 2026 — Mexico co-hosts the FIFA World Cup under the legacy framework.

AIEJA's publicly stated expectation was that an updated framework would be submitted during the first 2026 session. That window has effectively closed.

Why It Matters for Operators

The cost of the regulatory limbo shows up in three places:

1. Suppressed Foreign Investment

H2 Gambling Capital projects Mexican market growth of around 20% in 2025 — meaningful, but roughly half the 40% growth recorded in the prior year. The deceleration is not a demand problem; it is a capital problem. Investors deploying into LatAm are redirecting to jurisdictions with clearer frameworks (notably Brazil, which completed its regulated launch in January 2025) rather than underwriting multi-year Mexican plans on regulatory faith.

2. Product and Compliance Uncertainty

Operators cannot confidently build product roadmaps — particularly around online sportsbook, live casino, and emerging verticals like prediction-style markets — without knowing which licence categories will exist, what advertising rules will apply, and how responsible gambling obligations will be structured. The result is defensive product launches rather than the aggressive investment a World Cup year would normally justify.

3. Weak Regulator–Industry Channel

Lazcano Sámano has publicly noted that SEGOB has not maintained an active or consistent dialogue with the industry over the last two years. In mature markets, the regulator-industry feedback loop is where practical compliance frameworks get built. Its absence in Mexico means that even when the modernisation bill eventually lands, operators will be implementing it without the informal guidance layer that exists in the UK, Spain, or Brazil.

What a Modernised Framework Would Likely Include

Based on industry commentary and the structure of peer LatAm reforms, operators are preparing for a modernised Mexican framework to address:

• A dedicated online gaming licence category with explicit scope for sportsbook, casino, live casino, and possibly fantasy/prediction products
• Geo-targeting and player verification requirements aligned with LatAm peer frameworks
• Responsible gambling obligations — deposit limits, self-exclusion, and advertising restrictions — modelled on Spanish and Brazilian precedents
• Tax and fee structures that may include a combination of gross gaming revenue tax and turnover-based levies
• A clearer pre-emption line between federal and state authority, which has been a persistent source of litigation

The Bottom Line

Mexico is one of the largest LatAm gambling markets by addressable population and the only one hosting World Cup matches in 2026, yet it is entering that tournament without the modern regulatory framework every major operator has asked for. The expectation has shifted from "reform in 2026" to "reform by 2027 at the earliest" — and the market's trajectory will depend on whether SEGOB reopens industry dialogue and moves a draft to the legislature after the World Cup cycle.

Operators monitoring LatAm exposure should treat Mexico as a slow-compounding market through 2026 and model capital deployment against a regulatory timeline that remains open-ended.

Adkuu's intelligence layer tracks regulatory state across major iGaming jurisdictions, feeding that signal into operator-level risk and product models alongside behavioural and commercial data.

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Last verified: April 2026