What Do Michigan's 2026 Prediction-Market Orders Mean for Operators?
By October 10, 2026, Kalshi, Robinhood and Coinbase had all stopped sports event contracts in Michigan under a court order or agreements with the state, pending the Sixth Circuit.
As of October 10, 2026, Kalshi, Robinhood and Coinbase had all stopped offering sports event contracts to Michigan customers. The Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) announced on October 7, 2026 that Coinbase Financial Markets had agreed to stop offering new sports-related event contracts in Michigan, including those traded on KalshiEX and other designated contract markets, and to close out open positions by 12:00 a.m. Eastern time on October 10. Robinhood Derivatives had agreed to the same on September 9, 2026, and an Ingham County Circuit Court preliminary injunction signed on September 1, 2026 bars KalshiEX from sports contracts for anyone in Michigan. None of this settles whether a state may regulate CFTC-registered event contracts as gambling; that question sits with the US Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit and possibly the Supreme Court.
The timeline
| Date | Platform | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | KalshiEX | Attorney General Dana Nessel sues under Michigan's Lawful Sports Betting Act | Michigan AG |
| June 2026 | KalshiEX | Temporary restraining order halts its Michigan sports operation | Michigan AG |
| August 2026 | Coinbase | Court denies Coinbase's request for a preliminary injunction against the state | MGCB |
| September 1, 2026 | KalshiEX | Preliminary injunction: geofence Michigan, fine of 500,000 US dollars per day for violations | Michigan AG |
| September 9, 2026 | Robinhood Derivatives | Agrees to stop new sports contracts that day and close positions by October 9 | MGCB |
| October 7, 2026 | Coinbase Financial Markets | Agrees to stop new sports contracts and close positions by October 10 | MGCB |
What the orders require
The Kalshi injunction is the hardest instrument. According to the Attorney General's office, it requires Kalshi to maintain geofencing that blocks Michigan residents and anyone within Michigan's borders from its sports contracts, with a fine of 500,000 US dollars per day for violations. The case went back to state court after Kalshi tried to move it to federal court and the Attorney General's motion to remand was granted.
Robinhood and Coinbase signed stipulations instead. In exchange for stopping, the state agreed not to take enforcement action while the companies comply and while related appeals proceed. The MGCB says the agreements preserve all parties' rights and defenses, including Robinhood's argument that its federally structured contracts are not subject to state regulation. Coinbase's own appeal is stayed pending the related appeals involving Robinhood, Polymarket and Kalshi. MGCB Executive Director Henry Williams said: "Operators are halting these activities because they face significant legal consequences for continuing to offer them in our state."
What it means for operators
- Licensed Michigan sportsbooks keep the state's sports-betting market to themselves while the appeals run. The MGCB frames the actions as ensuring sports wagering is offered "only through properly licensed and regulated operators".
- Operators running an exchange-backed product in the US need state-by-state geofencing they can prove. The Kalshi order names geofencing explicitly, and the stipulations show the platforms chose to stop rather than litigate under enforcement risk.
- Brokers count, not only exchanges. Coinbase's agreement covers contracts "traded on KalshiEX and other designated contract markets", so a front end that routes customers to someone else's exchange is inside the scope.
- Non-sports contracts are a separate question. The Michigan actions target sports-related event contracts; a contract on an election, an economic release or a crypto price is not what these orders address.
- European operators are not directly affected, but the case shows why the regulatory track matters when choosing a model. A fixed-odds feed such as Adkuu Pulse is designed to sit inside an operator's existing sports-betting licence rather than run as a separate exchange product; the operator's legal team confirms the scope per market. The trade-offs are in Fixed-odds vs exchange prediction markets.
What happens next
The Sixth Circuit appeals decide whether Michigan may apply its gaming law to CFTC-registered event contracts. The split between federal circuits on the same question is explained in What is the prediction market circuit split?. Until a final ruling, the Michigan pattern of injunctions for those who fight and stipulations for those who step back is the template other state regulators can follow. Adkuu Pulse details are on the Adkuu Pulse page.
Sources
- Coinbase agrees to halt sports-related event contracts in Michigan (MGCB, October 7, 2026)
- Robinhood agrees to halt sports-related event contracts in Michigan amid ongoing litigation (MGCB, September 9, 2026)
- AG Nessel Secures Second Order Halting Unlawful Kalshi Sports Wagers in Michigan (Michigan Attorney General, September 2, 2026)
Last verified: October 14, 2026.