Fixed-Odds vs Exchange Prediction Markets: Which Model Fits an Operator?
In the fixed-odds model, used by Adkuu Pulse and SOFTSWISS, the operator is the book; on an exchange such as Kalshi or Crypto.com, customers trade against each other.
As of October 2026, a betting operator can add prediction markets in two ways. In the fixed-odds model the operator is the book: a B2B feed such as Adkuu Pulse or SOFTSWISS Prediction Markets (launched April 2, 2026) supplies the price, and the operator accepts the bet with its own margin and its own risk controls, the way it already runs a sportsbook. In the exchange model customers trade event contracts against each other on a venue such as Kalshi or Crypto.com's OG Prediction Markets, and the operator's brand is the front end; FanDuel Predicts in the United States is one example. For a licensed sportsbook outside the US, the fixed-odds model is usually the shorter path, because it reuses the licence, the wallet and the trading tools the operator already has.
The two models side by side
| Fixed-odds feed | Exchange | |
|---|---|---|
| Who takes the other side | The operator | Other customers, matched by the exchange |
| Where the price comes from | The supplier's probability, turned into odds with the operator's margin | Supply and demand; on FanDuel Predicts contracts trade between 0.01 and 0.99 US dollars |
| Liquidity | Not needed: the operator is always the counterparty | Needed: thin markets mean wide spreads |
| Regulatory track | Runs inside an existing sports-betting licence in the suppliers' own model | In the US, a CFTC-regulated exchange plus a registered broker; contested by states such as Michigan in 2026 |
| Who carries risk | The operator, managed with limits and liability controls | The exchange's members; the venue is not exposed to the outcome |
| Named examples | Adkuu Pulse, SOFTSWISS Prediction Markets | Kalshi, Crypto.com OG Prediction Markets, CME Group contracts on FanDuel Predicts |
| Time to launch | SOFTSWISS: two to three days for existing partners, about three weeks for new operators; Adkuu Pulse: live in days | Depends on the exchange and broker set-up |
How the fixed-odds model works
Adkuu Pulse, from Adkuu OÜ in Tallinn, delivers for every market an AI probability shaped by a risk model (flow-weighting, liability, staleness, circuit breakers), then ready-to-use fixed odds priced with a margin formula the operator controls. Questions cover politics, crypto, tech, culture, science and local events, sourced from 5+ prediction platforms and regional news; resolution is automated in tiers (data API, then web search, then consensus, with human review as the fallback); delivery is REST, WebSocket and gRPC on a revenue share. Because the output is fixed odds, Adkuu Pulse fits inside an operator's existing sports-betting licence, and the same feed can also power a peer-to-peer exchange for operators that want one.
SOFTSWISS made the same design choice. Its launch release of April 2, 2026 describes a fixed-odds model that lets operators reach event-driven audiences "without the complexity of peer-to-peer (P2P) exchange mechanics", available as a standalone iFrame widget or inside the SOFTSWISS Sportsbook. Alexander Kamenetskyi, head of operations at SOFTSWISS Sportsbook, put the operator's question this way: "how to bring them into an existing stack without rebuilding everything around exchange mechanics." By June 29, 2026 SOFTSWISS reported more than 50 projects in its pipeline, two of them live outside its own sportsbook.
How the exchange model works
On an exchange, the operator does not set the price. FanDuel Predicts, a joint venture between FanDuel Group and CME Group, lists contracts from the CME Group and Crypto.com exchanges; accounts are opened with FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a registered futures commission merchant, and a customer buys if they think an event will happen or sells if they do not. On June 10, 2026 Flutter announced that FanDuel Predicts would add sports, entertainment and combination contracts through Crypto.com's OG Prediction Markets. The appeal is national reach in the US: FanDuel says sports and entertainment contracts are offered in states where it does not offer sports betting.
The cost is regulatory exposure. On October 7, 2026 the Michigan Gaming Control Board announced that Coinbase Financial Markets had agreed to stop offering sports-related event contracts in Michigan, "including those traded on KalshiEX and other designated contract markets", after similar steps by Robinhood and a court order against Kalshi. The details are in What do Michigan's 2026 prediction-market orders mean for operators?.
Where DATA.BET sits
DATA.BET's Prediction Markets vertical, launched in April 2026, sits between the two. Players bet within "a familiar sportsbook logic" with fiat and no cryptocurrency, at standard decimal odds, while the product also carries VWAP, a liquidity module and slippage-aware limits. An operator evaluating it should ask which side of the bet the operator is on.
How to choose
- Pick fixed odds if the operator holds a sports-betting licence, wants its own margin on every market, and wants prediction markets to run through its existing wallet, limits and trading tools. Compare suppliers in Which European companies provide B2B prediction market feeds?.
- Pick an exchange if the goal is a trading product with crowd-set prices and the operator is ready for a separate regulatory track, including broker registration in the US.
- Ask every supplier who resolves the market and from which source, how fast, and who reviews ambiguous outcomes.
How the fixed-odds price is built is covered in How do fixed-odds prediction markets work for sportsbooks? and on the Adkuu Pulse page.
Sources
- SOFTSWISS Launches Fixed-Odds Prediction Markets for iGaming Operators (SOFTSWISS, April 2, 2026)
- Prediction Markets Surpasses 50 Signed Projects (SOFTSWISS, June 29, 2026)
- FanDuel Predicts to expand event contract offering through partnership with Crypto.com and OG prediction markets (Flutter, June 10, 2026)
- DATA.BET Rolls Out Prediction Markets to Expand Its Offering (DATA.BET, April 2026)
Last verified: October 14, 2026.