Prediction Markets vs Novelty Bets and Specials: What Differs for Operators?
Novelty bets and specials are one-off markets a trader prices by hand; fixed-odds prediction markets such as Adkuu Pulse are a continuous, sourced feed with automated resolution.
For a sportsbook, novelty bets, specials and prediction markets can all cover the same subjects (an election, an awards show, a product launch), but they run differently. Novelty bets and specials are one-off markets that a trading team writes, prices and settles by hand, usually around a few big moments a year. A fixed-odds prediction-market feed such as Adkuu Pulse, or SOFTSWISS Prediction Markets launched on April 2, 2026, turns the same territory into a continuous product: a board of curated questions, each with a sourced probability, odds carrying the operator's margin, and automated resolution. The bet the player places is still a fixed-odds bet; what changes is who writes, prices and settles the market, and how many of them there are.
The three formats side by side
| Novelty bets | Specials | Fixed-odds prediction markets | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical subject | Entertainment, reality TV, politics, celebrity | Boosted or bespoke markets around a sports event or a season | Politics, economics, crypto, tech, culture, science, local events |
| Who writes the market | The operator's trading team | The operator's trading or marketing team | The supplier's curation; with Adkuu Pulse operators can also request markets as "Magic Questions" |
| Pricing | Trader judgment | Trader judgment, often with a promotional boost | A supplier probability turned into odds with the operator's margin |
| Volume | A handful at a time | Event-driven | A standing board that follows the news cycle |
| Resolution | Manual, against the operator's published rules | Manual | Automated tiers with human review as fallback (Adkuu Pulse) |
| Main integrity risk | Insiders who know the result before it is announced | Correlated or mispriced promotions | Ambiguous resolution sources |
Why novelty markets carry integrity risk
Novelty markets are exposed when a small group knows the outcome before the public. The Gambling Commission in Great Britain advised operators on 15 April 2019 to reassess bets on reality TV shows decided by public voting, because a time lag between the end of voting and the official announcement creates a risk that "people linked to the programme could use or share this information to place bets". Its advice was to consider ceasing to accept bets in parallel to the public voting concluding. The same logic applies to any market with a recorded or pre-decided outcome: the rule set and the close time matter as much as the price.
A prediction-market feed handles this through structure rather than trader vigilance. Adkuu Pulse resolves through a data API first, then web search, then consensus, with human review as the fallback, and shapes each probability with a risk model (flow-weighting, liability, staleness checks and circuit breakers) before the operator's margin is applied. The questions to ask any supplier are the same as for a novelty market: what source decides it, when betting closes, and what happens if the outcome is ambiguous.
What changes operationally
- Trading load. Novelty markets need a trader for every market. A feed delivers ready-to-use odds; SOFTSWISS describes its product as working "without a dedicated trading team", and Adkuu Pulse ships fixed odds priced with a margin formula the operator controls.
- Breadth. DATA.BET's Prediction Markets vertical, launched in April 2026, covers politics, geopolitics, finance, technology, crypto, economy, culture and weather with binary and multi-outcome markets; a manual novelty book rarely sustains that range.
- Licence fit. All three are fixed-odds bets, which is why both SOFTSWISS and Adkuu position their products inside an operator's existing licence. Novelty subjects still need checking per jurisdiction: some markets allow election or entertainment betting and some do not, and the operator's legal team confirms the scope per market.
- Player audience. SOFTSWISS's Olga Resiga argued at launch that prediction-market users "are driven by their understanding of global events rather than fandom", which is the audience novelty markets reach only occasionally.
When to use which
Keep specials for sports promotions and novelty bets for the handful of moments where the trading team has an edge or a marketing reason. Add a fixed-odds prediction-market feed when the goal is a standing non-sports board with sourced resolution and the operator's margin on every market. How the price is built is in How do fixed-odds prediction markets work for sportsbooks?; the choice between being the book and hosting an exchange is in Fixed-odds vs exchange prediction markets; Adkuu Pulse details are on the Adkuu Pulse page.
Sources
- A reminder of the risks surrounding novelty markets (Gambling Commission, April 15, 2019)
- SOFTSWISS Launches Fixed-Odds Prediction Markets for iGaming Operators (SOFTSWISS, April 2, 2026)
- Prediction Markets Surpasses 50 Signed Projects (SOFTSWISS, June 29, 2026)
- DATA.BET Rolls Out Prediction Markets to Expand Its Offering (DATA.BET, April 2026)
Last verified: October 14, 2026.